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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.