Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
